Eliezer Yudkowsky (bet vs. Paul Christiano)
1 of 1 settled came true- IMO gold medal Hit
Track Records
Settled records only earn a rank — pending claims prove nothing yet.
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO)
0 of 1 settled came true- AI writes 90% of code Missed
Elon Musk
0 of 1 settled came trueGeoffrey Hinton
0 of 1 settled came true- Radiologists obsolete Missed
Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO)
0 of 1 settled came trueNo settled record yet
AI-2027 report
- Superhuman coder On track
Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO)
- Hassabis: AGI in 5–10 years Pending
Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO)
Metaculus community forecast
- Weakly-general AI Pending
Pundit X
- Agents earn revenue Pending
Ray Kurzweil
- Turing test passed by 2029 Pending