← AI Forecast Ledger
Pendingtimelines

The first weakly general AI system is publicly announced around 2028

by Metaculus community forecast · called 2020

Pending · due 2028

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Pending

Pending · due 2028

Public announcement date vs. the live community medianunknown — pending a direct read of the live Metaculus median

How it's graded

Met if a system meeting the Metaculus weakly-general-AI resolution criteria is publicly announced near the community median

Receipts

No verified evidence yet.

Ledger history
  • 2026-06-24: seeded; awaiting a verifiable read of the Metaculus median before grading

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.