OverduecapabilitiesWithin three to six months AI will be writing 90% of code, and within a year essentially all of it
Overdue · deadline Mar 2026 passed, awaiting grade
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Overdue
Overdue · deadline Mar 2026 passed, awaiting grade
Share of production code generated by AI vs. written by humansContested: Amodei cites high internal use at Anthropic, but there is no verified industry-wide 90% figure and independent analyses dispute it
How it's graded
Met if, broadly across software, AI is generating ~90% of code by late 2025; failed if human-written code stays the clear majority of production software
Trajectory unverified indicators — not graded receipts
- Sep 2025By late 2025: AI writing ~90% of code (the 3–6 month call) missedSix months on, no verified industry-wide 90% figure materialized; independent analyses put AI's share far lower.assessed Jun 2026indication↗
- Mar 2026By Mar 2026: AI writing essentially all code (the 1-year call) missedA year on, human-written code remains the clear majority of production software; even Anthropic's internal 90% claim is disputed.assessed Jun 2026indication↗
Receipts · 1
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said AI could be writing '90% of the code' within three to six months.
Yahoo Finance · 2025-03
Ledger history
- 2026-06-24: seeded
- 2026-06-25: demoted pending bulletproof re-grade
- 2026-06-26: added trajectory checkpoints — both 3–6mo and 1-yr milestones missed