OverduecapabilitiesAI smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025
Overdue · deadline Dec 2025 passed, awaiting grade
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Overdue · deadline Dec 2025 passed, awaiting grade
Broad cognitive capability vs. the single most capable humanunknown — pending a formal grade; frontier models lead on many benchmarks but no accepted demonstration of exceeding the smartest human across domains
Met if, by end of 2025, a deployed AI system demonstrably exceeds the most capable individual human across the breadth of cognitive tasks (not just benchmarks); failed if leading systems remain below top human experts in substantial domains
“My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,” Musk said in a livestreamed interview on his social network X.
The Guardian · 2024-04-09