Overdueeconomy

In 2025, the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies

by Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) · called 2025-01

Overdue · deadline Dec 2025 passed, awaiting grade

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Overdue

Overdue · deadline Dec 2025 passed, awaiting grade

Documented production deployments of autonomous agents with material output impactunknown — pending a formal grade; coding agents resolve real GitHub issues autonomously, broader workforce-agent evidence uncollected

How it's graded

Met if by end of 2025 autonomous AI agents are deployed in real companies doing economically material work (documented output changes), beyond copilots and chat assistants; failed if agent deployments remain pilots without material output impact

Receipts · 1

We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.
Sam Altman — Reflections (blog) · 2025-01

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.