Every AI forecast, graded against reality. https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com We log the loudest public predictions about AI, then grade each one against dated, linkable evidence. No vibes — only receipts. Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Five years past the radiologist call https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com/notes/note-anniversary-hinton-stop-training-radiologists-by-2021-2021.html https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com/notes/note-anniversary-hinton-stop-training-radiologists-by-2021-2021.html In 2016 Geoffrey Hinton said we should stop training radiologists because deep learning would outperform them within five years. The 2021 deadline passed; radiologist demand has since grown rather than collapsed. The claim is past its window and awaiting a formal grade — not yet a verdict. Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT The 90%-of-code window has closed https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com/notes/note-anniversary-amodei-ai-writes-90pct-of-code-by-2025-2026.html https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com/notes/note-anniversary-amodei-ai-writes-90pct-of-code-by-2025-2026.html In March 2025 Dario Amodei said AI would be writing 90% of code within three to six months. That window closed in March 2026. The claim is past deadline and awaiting a formal grade. Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Why receipts, not vibes https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com/notes/note-methodology-receipts-2026-06.html https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com/notes/note-methodology-receipts-2026-06.html Every resolved claim on the ledger is graded against dated, linkable evidence, blind-verified by two independent models, and bound to a commit in version history. We publish the receipt, not the take. Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT A superhuman coder exists by end of 2027 https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com#superhuman-coder-2027 superhuman-coder-2027 Pending — Met when a model autonomously completes a non-trivial PR end-to-end at senior-eng level Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Within three to six months AI will be writing 90% of code, and within a year essentially all of it https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com#amodei-ai-writes-90pct-of-code-by-2025 amodei-ai-writes-90pct-of-code-by-2025 Overdue — Met if, broadly across software, AI is generating ~90% of code by late 2025; failed if human-written code stays the clear majority of production software Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT An AI built before the contest earns a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com#ai-imo-gold-medal-by-2025 ai-imo-gold-medal-by-2025 Hit — Met when, at an IMO through 2025, an AI built beforehand scores at or above the gold-medal cutoff under competition conditions Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep learning outperforms radiologists within five years, so we should stop training them now https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com#hinton-stop-training-radiologists-by-2021 hinton-stop-training-radiologists-by-2021 Overdue — Met if AI had displaced human radiologists (falling demand / headcount) by ~2021; failed if the workforce kept growing and AI became a complement Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT The first weakly general AI system is publicly announced around 2028 https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com#metaculus-weakly-general-ai-2028 metaculus-weakly-general-ai-2028 Pending — Met if a system meeting the Metaculus weakly-general-AI resolution criteria is publicly announced near the community median Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Autonomous agents run measurable revenue by 2026 https://scorecard.aiforecastledger.com#agent-economy-2026 agent-economy-2026 Pending — Met when a public company attributes >1% revenue to autonomous agents Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT