Hinton radiologist prediction — 10-year anniversary context

Geoffrey Hinton predicted in 2016 that deep learning would outperform radiologists within five years (target 2021) and that training of radiologists should stop. The Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute reports the US radiologist workforce grew 17.3% (30,723 to 36,024) from 2014 to 2023, and a 2025 Nature paper documents a persistent radiology workforce shortage. The target date of 2021 is now five years past.